The RMBOK risk model: connect today’s decisions with future outcomes

Risk management helps connect what you want to achieve with the decisions and resources available now. The RMBOK risk model shows that connection through objectives, uncertainty, events, controls, consequences and outcomes.

Read it as a simplified explanation of relationships. It does not promise that progress towards an objective will steadily remove uncertainty or that completing each box will secure the desired result.

Start with the objective and the resources available

Clarify what success means, whose objectives matter and the period being considered. Then identify the people, information, systems and other resources available to pursue those objectives.

A fictional service team might aim to maintain an agreed level of customer support during a system change. Its resources include staff capability, supplier assistance, a tested change plan and a way to restore service if necessary.

Distinguish the roles of controls

Pre-event controls act on pathways leading to an event. They may reduce the likelihood of an unwanted event or support the occurrence of a desired one.

Post-event controls act on pathways from the event to its consequences. They often need to be designed, installed or rehearsed beforehand. The term describes when their function matters; it does not mean preparation should wait until after something happens.

For the service team, testing and checking readiness can inform the launch decision. A prepared recovery arrangement can help manage the consequences if the change does not work as intended. Each control still requires an owner, resources and evidence of performance.

Compare outcomes with objectives

As events unfold, compare observed results with the intended outcome. Explain gaps and investigate whether assumptions, controls or operating conditions need to change.

Some unknowns will become clearer while new uncertainties arise. Outcomes from one cycle become the starting conditions for the next. This makes feedback and adaptation central to the model.

Use the model in a short review

• What objective are we pursuing, and with what resources?

• Which threats or opportunities could affect it?

• What event are we examining?

• Where do the controls act, and what evidence supports them?

• What would show whether we achieved the intended outcome?

• What result or change would make us revisit the decision?

The value lies in the connections you can explain and act on. A complete-looking diagram is a starting point for examining those connections.

Adapted from the terminology chapter of Risk Management Body of Knowledge, by Julian Talbot, Jason Brown and Miles Jakeman, AM. The service-change example is fictional.

Put the body of knowledge to work

Explore the Risk Management Body of Knowledge for the connected principles, frameworks and methods behind this article.

Considering a shared reference for your team? Enquire about organisational use and tell us how you would use RMBOK.